Sunday, February 25, 2007

Bubble Time

With the NCAA Tournament approaching quickly (only 2 weeks until Selection Sunday) I figured I would do a few posts over the next couple days detailing the chances of teams in college basketball. Over the next few days, since I have a lot of time on my hands before I head to Tampa for Spring Training, we'll see if I can go over each team that has a legitimate shot at making the Big Dance. Today we'll start with the ACC.

North Carolina
Ummm, yeah they're in. The question is will they be a number one seed. When it comes down to it though, I really hate freshman point guards in crunch time (Tywon Lawson). They've got at Maryland, at Georgia Tech and Duke at home left. I really can't see them losing more than one of those games.

After that scare a few weeks ago, I think it's safe to say they are in. In fact, they might rise as high as a 2 or 3 seed when all is said and done. They just beat St. John's and have Maryland and UNC to end the season. Don't see them making it further than the Sweet 16 though.

Had to have a Duke picture

Where did this team come from? They've got Va Tech at home and a visit to Wake left, both winnable games, that will put them at 21-wins. It just goes to show what a new arena does for you. Even with a major collapse I think they've done enough to be in the 65-team field.

Virginia Tech
They've got so many quality wins and a few ugly losses. But I think that win over BC this past week put them in for good. They are definitely a sleeper team when you are filling out your bracket. Hokies present so many matchup problems.

I think everyone knows that they started 17-0 and are now 19-9 (I feel like I heard that stat 80 times this past week). They've got Miami at home and Va Tech on the road. I'm pretty sure if they lose either of those they are done. And even if they win out they are definitely going to have win one, and maybe two games in the ACC Tourny. I just don't see them doing that, and I don't even see them winning at VaTech.

Boston College
BC looked like a lock a couple weeks ago, then went to the bubble after a few losses in a row, and I think they went back to a lock after getting that win over Clemson yesterday. They're in but they have first-round loss written all over them.

Florida State
All they have left is a game against Miami which they have to win. They've got some quality W's over Florida, VaTech and MD but those five losses in a row that just ended will probably doom them. Barring a run to the ACC Tourny finals, I just don't see Leonard Hamilton (could he go down as the worst Bullets/Wizards coach ever?) making it.

People have been giving gary crap for not making the tournament, but like I told Matt the other day, you cannot take a national championship-winning coach for granted. You don't know how far your program will drop with a shitty coach. Oh yeah by the way Terps are in after some shakiness mid-season. That Michigan State win early in the season went from good to meh to good over the course of the season.

Who is he?

Georgia Tech
Tech sits at 18 wins as I type this and they've got two games left against UNC and BC that, if they won both, would definitely put them right on the cusp. A win in the ACC Tourny would probably put them over the edge. That being said, do you see this team beating both UNC and BC. I don't. They are kind if in the same position as Michigan. Yeah they have these marquee games left, but has this team really shown anybody that they can beat an elite team? Consider them done.

Wake Forest
No way in hell. Let's not even joke they won't win the ACC Tourny. Maybe I'll get to cover an NIT game involving Big Viss.

NC State
Nope. Rematch of the century at Madison Square Garden: Michigan vs. NC State with an NIT title on the line. Imagine the ratings possibilities.

I spit on their existence.

So that means I've got six teams coming out of the ACC. Some have said 8 or even 9 but that would mean some of these bubble teams would have to win in the ACC Tourny. And with how loaded this conference is this season, I just don't think the bubble teams will be able to win a bunch of games in a row like that.

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