Gilbert is becoming the girl next door

This Gilbert Arenas news hit me hard. I've had just about enough of this injury stuff. I barely remember watching the Wizards play with their full complement of players completely healthy. Every moment it seems you can reach out and touch this team, the glass shatters right on your hand. There was the beginning of last season when Gilbert came back, hit a buzzer beater to send the season opener against Indiana into overtime, only to have the team lose the game and Gilbert four games later. There was the playoff comeback last season, where Gilbert hits a decisive bank shot with 20 seconds left in game four against the Cavs, only to watch LeBron win it and Gilbert shut it down again before game five.

Seriously, just the other day as I was driving into work, listening to the Sports Junkies (who are still around and definitely still wildly entertaining). They had Antawn Jamison on for an interview, and the leader made it clear the Wiz wanted another piece of the Cavs. Loved the attitude and it got me all amped up. Now we've got this. It's just been a perpetual excitement followed by bitter disappointment and subsequent questioning of the excitement to begin with. No matter what way the Wiz or Gilbert want to spin this, it can't be good when your best player, whose main asset on the court is his raw explosiveness, has had three knee surgeries in 17 months.


Stop teasing me.

Now that I've gotten that doom and gloom out of the way, let's look deeper at this. I realize it's an injury the team somehow managed to get through most of last year and the procedure yesterday was something Gilbert downplayed in interviews, but it's definitely a blow to this team. Even if Gilbert comes back at the beginning of Decemeber, it's going to take at least three weeks, and probably more like a month, to get going again. I still think the Wizards will be good enough to make the playoffs without Gilbert 100 percent for a quarter of the season, but with how much the Eastern Conference has improved, it's going to be awful tough to get a high seed.

Everyone around the DC area is saying this will hurt even more now that Roger Mason isn't around to pick up the slack. I look at it as a perfect opportunity for Nick Young to step up and show more than just glimpses of that flair he displayed last season. He can either embrace it and become (what I hope/think) is a less quick, plays more above the rim version of Monta Ellis OR he can crumble under the pressure, stunting whatever potential people have seen in him thus far.


Because you've been given the privelege of making millions to play basketball, you are not entitled to long for your childhood like everyone else. You must grow up. NOW!

And simply relying on the old guard (Butler, Jamison, Daniels, Stevenson, Haywood) to step up might be asking too much with the way the Eastern Conference changed over the offseason. Philly, Toronto, and Miami are going to make noise, Atlanta has more confidence than ever after last year's playoffs, and the Celtics, Pistons, Magic, and Cavs are all bringing back the same nucleus that made them so good a season ago. All that being said, the Wiz have shown themselves

It's a perfect time for grad school

I couldn't not address what is becoming the biggest financial crisis in a generation, despite the fact that I’m no longer in New York. Obviously, this situation is affecting all of us. Seriously, that title is dead serious. It' about the worst time to be looking for a job these days, and the way things have been it's going to stay that way for awhile.

Whether it’s Lehman Brothers going to hell, Merrill Lynch selling its soul to Bank of America, AIG getting $800 plus in government handouts, or the various other mergers that are going to be necessary for certain companies to get out of a hole, one thing is certain: Shit has hit the fan.

I’m pretty terrified about my industry. The Sun is about to cave in. Other major newspaper conglomerates are going through huge cutbacks. And this is all before they feel the wrath of these latest Wall Street debacles. I’m counting my lucky stars that I get paid very little, so if anything I might benefit from this whole thing because companies are going to replace higher paid, older folks with relatively inexperienced cheap up and comers like myself. Still, though, it doesn’t make it cool.

But I think the best way to approach what can only be called a disaster is with a little bit of humor. That’s why I was watching the Daily Show the other day when Jon Stewart decided to make fun of the situation (which is definitely healthy). Stewart showed clips of all these financial heads describing how huge of a financial crisis we are in, and followed it up with our great President, George W. Bush, downplaying the ordeal as casual “adjustments” of the financial system.

Now, like I said above this situation is pretty serious. But I tend to side more towards the Bush point of view (although it’s clear this is more than just adjustments). I hear accounts of what went down last weekend when the powers that be within the Treasury Department, the Fed, and the SEC met with the 20 most powerful financial CEOs in the country and couldn’t help but laugh and think about one of my favorite movies, The Godfather.

At about 6 p.m., in a large conference room just off the lobby on the ground floor of the New York Federal Reserve, Paulson sat at a long oval table with Securities and Exchange Commissioner Christopher Cox by his side. New York Fed Chairman Timothy F. Geithner sat directly opposite.

The meeting was open to chief executives only, and about 20 of these finance titans sat quietly around the table. The New York City subway, located below the room, periodically sent screeches and rumbles into the meeting.

That’s got to be a joke. You gotta love the subway reference because the author clearly wants to make this seem as if it’s the equivalent of signing the Declaration of Independence of something, but c’mon that just comes off as silly. It would be like me saying, “As I was write this post, I heard the birds chirping and the sun emerging from the clouds, signaling a new day on Wall Street. Basically, it’s flowery bullshit.

It does make this thing seem like a movie, though. In Godfather terms, this was like the meeting of the five families. One of those dudes is going to turn into the Michael Corleone of the bunch. So far we’ve got Lehman Brothers as the Fredo of the bunch, with the way they refused help even though they were so far in over their heads, they no longer knew what was best for them. I see Bank of America as the Sonny Corleone. Just like Bank of America came out of nowhere (or Charlotte, whatever you wanna call it) to become this sizable conglomerate, Sonny eclipsed anyone’s expectations and took over the family after the death of Don Vito (Marlon Brando). But ultimately, Sonny — like Bank of America — will also fail. That leaves you with Michael Corleone — or in this case, well, I don’t know, I’m no expert. My best guess is Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan (or maybe even a competent President) pulling America’s finances back together.

But remember in the Godfather, when Michael Corleone, played by Al Pacino, promises to work together with all the five families, and then ends up killing all of the bastards and moving to Las Vegas for Godfather Part II. Well, they’ve all promised to work together as evidenced by the Bank of America merger and the AIG handout.

But with the way things have gone lately, I’m waiting for the mass murder.

A Brutal NFC Outlook

Just when I thought the talk of the town would center around my least favorite referee, Ed Hochuli, and his bogus whistle on an apparent fumble to give the Broncos and upset win over the Chargers, the Eagles and Cowboys had to go out and play an instant classic, cementing both team's reputations as title contenders. By the way, I hate to say I told you so, but check out that Hochuli link of a post I did almost a year ago. Don't say i didn't warn the world about the terror that is Ed Hochuli.

It was a scary realization for any Redskins fan even with the ginormously huge win over New Orleans this past weekend. The Cowboys both looked as good as advertised, most especially the offense. Now, I don't want to put too much into one game at the beginning of the season (because any semi functional NFL fans knows how much things change over the course of a football season), but as much as this pains me to say, if I'm an Eagles fan, I'm feeling pretty good. Everyone knew that Cowboy offense was prolific, but nobody knew what to think of the Eagles shaky receiving group.


Fumble aside, Desean Jackson looks awesome. But I'm not sold on him staying healthy for an entire season. He could never really do it at Cal.

But two weeks in, it's pretty clear Philly is chock full of weapons, and they're only going to get better when Kevin Curtis returns from injury. The defense should be concerning —and it certainly doesn't look as good as some thought it might be — but it can't play much worse than it did in the first half last night.

It was a big wake up call to the rest of the league that the NFC East is likely to be the best division in football. My huge dilemma coming out of all this is that the Saints game showed me that the Skins are capable of being a top six team in the NFC. The only problem is Zorn's gang looks like the worst team in its division. That would make it impossible to make the playoffs.

Combine that with the play of the Packers in the NFC North, the Panthers in the South, and the automatic bid given to whichever mediocre team that comes out of the West, and it's going to take a 10-6 or maybe even 11-5 record to make it to the postseason as a wild card.

As for the Redskins, they looked impressive against the Saints. Jason Campbell played the best game of his career down the stretch. The first half looked eerily similar to Campbell 2007 when he would move the team up and down the field between the 20s, only to stall in the red zone. I'm hoping that second half, where the Skins rallied from down nine, will serve as a breakthrough to more touchdown drives. And everyone is talking about that deep bomb to Santana to win the game (great throw and escape from the pocket), but the key plays of the game happened a drive earlier after Campbell was sacked, putting the Redskins against inside the 10 yard line.



On second and 22, Campbell delivered a 23-yard strike to Chris "my balls were on the world wide web" Cooley, and followed that up with an escape from thew pocket strike to Antwaan Randle-El. On a drive that Clinton Portis finished off with a touchdown run to draw the Skins within two points, Campbell was 5-for-5 for 82 yards. That confidence set up the throw to Moss that will be highlighted a ton this week.

Weekend Viewing Guide

Alright I'm going to try and make this a weekly segment on the blog now that I have oodles of time every weekend to watch sports again. I already kind of do this subconsciously anyways. I pick up the Friday Washington Post, grab the sports section, turn to the what's on TV column, and go through what exactly I'm going to watch over the next 48 hours.

Since I don't have NFL Sunday Ticket, ESPN Gameplan, or MLB Extra Innings, I'll have to include some of the big games (especially NFL-related) that I won't get to watch fully, unless i hit up a sports bar or something. But enough chit chat, here's my thoughts on the weekend.

Friday Night
Rays at Yankees 7p.m. ESPN
No. 12 Kansas at No.18 South Florida 8 p.m. ESPN2
I still can't believe it's September 12th and we're having a legitimate conversation about the Rays representing the American League in the World Series. For me, it has been the most surprising storyline in a long time, especially when you consider what I wrote after seeing the team at last year's Spring Training:

In talking with the DRays management they all have this notion that with the core they have set up right now, they should be contending for the World Series by next season. From looking at their roster, I think they are morons. Yes, their outfield is great with Baldelli, Delmon Young, and Carl Crawford, but baseball is all about pitching. And the DRays have a bunch of guys who they think could be good, but most baseball people think won't be that good. They have Scott Kazmir and a bunch of average pitchers. With how good the yanks and Bosox should be over the next few years, the DRays are not going to reach their goal of a playoff berth anytime soon.

That paragraph is a good indication of why I should not be running a baseball team. On the other hand, you've got the Yanks are in death march mode and I'm curious to see what they do after the year is over. It's time to play the kids and see what they're capable of. It's funny, I remember being in New York a few weeks ago and people were pointing to this series as the Yanks' make-or-break series of the season.

And before I forget, a Friday night football game involving teams outside of the WAC? I'm liking this whole "colleges want to get more primetime attention so they're willing to play any day of the week" thing. Unfortunately, I'm going to miss a good chunk of this one since I'll be covering a huge Yorktown High/West Potomac High football game (notice the sarcasm). If South Florida loses this one, though, I think there's a fair argument to be made over whether the Big East deserves a BCS bowl bid this year. Did anyone watch that Rutgers debacle last night? I'm counting my lucky stars, Michigan didn't hire Greg Schiano.

Saturday
Cal at Maryland Noon ESPN
Here's a good summation of the feelings Maryland fans have towards this game following last weekend's loss to Middle Tennessee State. I was invited to the tailgate of some Terrapin grads. I declined, citing my desire to catch all of the Michigan-ND game at 330. Their response after a good 20 seconds of laughter: We're not going to the game, just tailgating. Ah, the state of Ralph Friedgen football. By the way, if he's not calling the plays anymore (since they got a new offensive coordinator this season), what exactly does the Fridge do these days? Are we witnessing the development of the 450-pound ACC version of Joe Paterno?



Michigan at Notre Dame 3:30 p.m. NBC
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech 3:30 p.m. ABC
Georgia at South Carolina 3:30 p.m. CBS
UCLA at BYU 3:30 p.m. Versus

There are a bunch of Michigan bars throughout the DC area, and people have asked me to go to them for Michigan games so far this year. But am I alone in saying that if the game is on national television to begin with, it's much preferable to watch the game with the comforts of home. Unless I'm going to literally go see a game live, is there much of a point in going to a bar to spend money on a game I can watch for free? Maybe it's just me, I guess. As for the game itself, this one isn't going to be pretty. It should be a close, defensive battle, though. If Notre Dame doesn't put nine men in the box on defense, Charlie Weis should be fired immediately because anybody who has watched footage of Michigan's two games so far this season knows Steve Threet and Nick Sheridan have no idea what they're doing in the passing game. I bet you can count on one hand the amount of completions they've had that weren't rinky dink bubble screens to a wide receiver or running back. If Michigan doesn't win this one, the Wolverines could be staring dead on at a 1-4 record with games against Wisconsin and Illinois coming up.

As for what else I'll have my eye on ... I want to see if Georgia Tech's triple option will be successful against Virginia Tech. I think the 2-0 Yellow Jackets may be on to something with new coach Paul Johnson, who was the wizard of the triple option at Navy the past five or six seasons. ... I'm assuming a Georgia win, but I'm curious to see if the Ol' Ball Coach can make this one close (By the way, remember when Steve Spurrier was the biggest celeb in all the SEC and his Florida teams would almost always win the conference? Sure seems like a long time ago now). And lastly, a matchup of teams that shouldn't have won their first games of the season. After an atrocious first half against Tennessee, can UCLA show its second half was the real deal? Or will BYU continue the luck of the Mormon after being gift wrapped a win against Washington last week?

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets 3:50 p.m. FOX
The Mets are up on the Phillies by 3.5 games with 17 to go. A year ago they were 7 up with 17 to go. I don't think there's more fun than watching impending doom, and that's what I have a feeling is going to happen with Luis Ayala somehow closing games right now.

No. 5 Ohio State at No. 1 USC 8 p.m. ABC
Ah, the big kahuna of the weekend college football matchups. The Trojans looked damn good debacalizing (yes, I realize this isn't a word) Virginia a couple weeks ago, and the national spotlight on this game means they probably haven't gotten fat and happy with their week off. If Beanie Wells doesn't play, I don't see how this will be competitive. But I also think people are putting way too much stock into Ohio State looking bad last week. I hear prognosticators wondering if they overlooked Ohio in anticipation of this game. Ummm, of course they were! It was friggin' Ohio the week before the team goes to Hollywood to face the No. 1 team in all the land.



Sunday
Saints at Redskins 1 p.m. FOX
Bears at Panthers 1 p.m. FOX
Bills at Jaguars 1 p.m. CBS
Colts at Vikings 1 p.m. CBS
All I can really say about this Skins game is Thank the good lord Marques Colston isn't playing. That offense has enough weapons, especially now that Reggie Bush appears to be going through a Britney Spears-esque revitalization. The Saints are a legitimate contender in the NFC, and it's going to take a significantly better performance by the Skins offense to win this one. As much as Zorn wants to throw the ball, with the way the receivers and Campbell have performed so far, I'd much prefer the offense center around CPort. This game could make or break this season, because an 0-2 start could produce the type of bad karma that dooms teams.

As for the other games, Bears-Panthers features a set of teams that looked a whole lot better in week one than most predicted in the preseason. As far fetched as this may sound, I think this could be a playoff preview of some kind. That's how impressive both were. The Bears D looks as good, if not better than it has been in the past, and Matt Forte emerged as a legit weapon. If I'm the Panthers, I dare Kyle Orton to try and win this one. ... Graham keeps hounding me about the Bills, but I refuse to listen. If they look as good as they did in week one against the Jags this week, I might have to take notice. It doesn't hurt that the team's star player is named Roscoe. It just rolls off the tongue so well ... The Colts and Vikings both need to rebound after week one. But I expect Minny to be in full-on "I think Gus Frerotte might be better than Tavaris Jackson" mode after starting the season 0-2.

Broncos at Chargers 4:15 CBS
Patriots at Jets 4:15 CBS
Although it stinks that parts of Texas could be under water by the end of the weekend, I'm thrilled Hurricane Ike has forced the NFL to move the Texans-Ravens game to Monday night. In all likelihood, that would have been the 4 o'clock game on CBS here in Maryland. Now I bet we get Favre vs. the Patriots. I'm totally in agreement that Brady's injury knocks the Pats out of Super Bowl talk, but like my man, Randy Moss said earlier this week, the Pats are still the team to beat in the AFC East. They'll prove it this weekend. ... As for my Broncos, they looked mighty impressive last week, but it was against Jamarcus Russell (who plays eerily similar to Byron Leftwich, by the way). I think the Chargers are going to want this one real bad, because opening the season with two home losses would be less than ideal. But I'm not losing all hope, Norv Turner is still in charge (haha get the pun).

Steelers at Browns 8:00 NBC
I don't understand how after one week, everyone has these grand visions of the Steelers making the Super Bowl out of the AFC. Seriously, they were playing the Texans. I don't see how that is a litmus test for the Super Bowl. That being said, I expect them to win this game because the Browns are vastly overrated. Like I said last week, I don't think Derek Anderson will ever be ready for prime time.

Monday
Eagles at Cowboys
This is probably the game of the week if you ask me. Philly is pretty much the only team in the league that can legitimately say they match up well with the Cowboys' offensive weapons. This game is the primary reason why the Eagles brought in Assante Samuel for so much money this off season. The Eagles need to be able to blitz Tony Romo, and therefore leave Samuel in man-to-man coverage against Terrell Owens. I still don't think it will be enough, though. There are just too many weapons to keep track of on Dallas. Also, if she's at the game, I'm setting the over/under on number of times the camera flashes to Jessica Simpson at 25. I'll take the over.

So Much Qb Talk

Everywhere I look these days I can't stop hearing about quarterbacks. Everyone is just fascinated with them right now.

There's people talking about Tom Brady, his injured knee, and his replacement, Matt Cassel. Let's not forget the talk about Brady's supposed replacement on top of the AFC East mountain, Brett Favre. There's the whole "Vince Young may have gone off the deep end so quickly that we have to take a look at Chris Simms" thing. And I'm in DC and all I hear about is what a bad mismatch Jason Campbell is for this Jim Zorn west coast offense.

But you know when you really know the shit has hit the fan in the NFL? When writers start heaping ridiculous praise on people like Kurt Warner:

Warner is one of the best passers in pro football history and, even though it's later in his career, one of the best in the game today. He's better than Matt Hasselbeck or Jeff Garcia, and probably better than Donovan McNabb, or even Tom Brady — which is to say that given the same blockers and receivers, his career numbers would be better than theirs. That's a pretty safe bet, since Warner has been playing with bad-to-mediocre talent for much of his career, and his numbers are still better than theirs.

So this guy is overlooking Warner's penchant for holding onto the ball too long and therefore becoming a turnover machine in favor of the he had no talent around him card. Ummm...what? What do you call Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce (in his prime), Marshall Faulk (in his prime), and Mike Martz as an offensive coordinator (in his prime). Or what about his one-season stint with the Giants playing with a young Jeremy Shockey, Tiki Barber, and Amani Toomer (in his prime). And it's obvious he's devoid of talent now that he plays for the Cardinals alongside Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin.



Oh. but of course this writer has other reasons for making such outlandish claims:

As he starts the 2008 season, Warner is the third-highest-rated quarterback ever at 93.2, behind Steve Young and Peyton Manning, but you could watch him play all season without hearing anyone mention it. Brady, who has played behind the league's best offensive line, is fourth at 92.9. It's no stretch to imagine that if Warner and Brady switched teams, Warner would have at least three Super Bowl rings.

This brings me to my next point. How meaningless Qb rating is in the grand scheme of football things. It may be the most overused individual stat in the game today. If anything, the QB rating is a judgement of team performance more so than accurately analyzing quarterback play. I'll let a commenter to this story explain:

There is no more meaningless stat than the quarterback rating. Milt Plum has a higher quarterback rating that Johnny Unitas. The quarterback rating measures four things- completion percentage, yards gained, interceptions, and touchdown passes- in a formula.If the quarterback throws a screen pass, in the air for two yards, to a running back who breaks six tackles and goes 60 yards for a touchdown, the QB gets credit for a completion, 60 yards passing, and a TD pass, even though he threw the ball two yards in the air. Conversely, the QB can drop back, make the correct read and a perfect pass 50 yards downfield, where the receiver drops it. This will go as an incompletion and against his quarterback rating. The QB rating is almost meaningless.

Which brings me back to my point. Why so much focus on the quarterbacks all of a sudden. Vince Young's heart might be as fragile as a 14-year old girl after getting dumped in a middle school hallway, but let's not forget his team beat the Jags. He couldn't have been that bad of a quarterback. Same goes for Cassel. His team' talent is absurd to the point that a backup who hadn't played a meaningful minute of football in 12 years could go out and go 13-for-17.

And Campbell, well, I think he can be a successful quarterback in this system. But when a scheme relies extensively on a young quarterback making lightning quick reads in front of an aging offensive line in order to complete passes to a group of overrated wide receivers (yes, I am officially calling out Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El), I wouldn't necessarily affix the attention exclusively on Jason Campbell.


Are the two men on the left are worth a combined $62 million. The Skins think so. I tend to disagree.

So please people, let's keep in mind that there is life beyond the super awesome-o quarterback. Remember, just two years ago Sexy Rexy led (or more like dragged) the Bears into a Super Bowl. Guys like Trent Dilfer, Jeff Hostetler, Doug Williams (bless his heart) and Jim McMahon have won Super Bowls. Hell, the "most underrated quarterback of all time", Kurt Warner won one, too.

And seriously, let's not glorify him any more than we actually need to.

This scenario could have caused the Apocalypse

The first NFL weekend has come and gone, so let's not beat around the bush and talk about the major injuries that occurred. Seriously, the rash of injuries that hit the league this past weekend borders on absurd. Some may say the bigger story is all the teams that lost (Colts, Chargers, Jags, Browns), the teams that surprisingly won (Bears, Panthers, Titans, Packers), or even the mini-sagas that developed (the Colts getting old, the emotional roller coaster that is Vince Young, would the Raiders lose to USC right now).

But nothing altered the landscape of this NFL season more than the rash of injuries, particularly season-ending ones, that went down this past weekend. Think about all the storylines that have come about because of the loss of so many crucial pieces.

Seriously, look at this injured list: Tom Brady, Shawne Merriman, Nate Burleson, Vince Young. That's all in the first week of the season!

It's got people talking crazy, too. As we all know, Vince Young's relatives apparently think he's so depressed that the authorities must be on the lookout. I don't mean to make fun of the situation, but c'mon this is football. Isn't this the same guy photographed as such:



Even my man Peter King is going off the deep end a little bit. In his latest Monday Morning Qb column on SI.com, King does what no fan wants done to them after a summer full of Live from Kiln, Mississippi and other such rinky dink towns in Mississippi special reports courtesy of fine standing journalists at various outlets. King, bless his heart because I live for his column every Monday, takes Tom Brady's injury and decides to turn it around into another examination of the Favre saga:

But my very, very strong opinion is that had Favre stayed retired, and if Brady got hurt, and if the Patriots came calling (which they most certainly would have), Favre would be in Foxboro today.

Seriously, this Favre story gives me the same feeling I get thinking about this ridiculous New Kids on the Block Reunion. What I'm trying to say is whoever thought that either of these two things (continuing to take about Favre and NKOB embracing the past) were good ideas should be fired ... immediately!

At least what King wrote about was hypothetical. These injuries are the real deal. I think it's pretty reasonable to say the AFC is wide open. I don't think any team can say with a straight face that they're a favorite right now. Also, before I get going, congratulations to the two new teams I'm paying attention to: the Broncos and Panthers. Both have made me look good so far. I hope it continues.

My two surprise NFL teams

Well the opening game has come and gone now, and I can't say I was excited about the debut of the Jim Zorn era. The offense looked rudimentary (which is a nice way of saying bad and sloppy) and the defense decided not to show up for the first half. But I'll have more on the ways to fix the Skins (and it has a lot to do with the play of Jason Campbell) later.

For now, I wanted to get it on record my two surprise teams for this NFL season since any good sports writer has to make outlandish preseason predictions only to see them go horribly wrong to the point that said sports writer must pen something else to defend themselves. But with the NFL the way it is today, and parity reigning supreme, there's going to be two or three teams that come out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Last year, it was the Packers, Bucs, and Redskins (to a lesser extent) making the big playoff leap from obscurity in the NFC. And I'd say the only playoff team in the AFC who could qualify as somewhat of a surprise were the Titans, but everyone was predicting big things from Vince Young all last preseason. Little did they know, Vince Young would almost throw Tennessee out of the playoffs, only to get the biggest saving grace ever when the Colts decided to play a pee wee football team instead of their starters in the regular season's final game.

But back to the surprise teams. I have an inexact science to picking these types of things. I say inexact because from past experiences, it's clear my predictions are in no way, shape or form to be taken as anything remotely resembling fact. For me, a surprise team always has to come from a weak division, because surprise team generally get freebie wins against their mediocre divisional counterparts. They also have to have what I deem a relatively easy schedule to begin the season since a fast start is paramount to make the playoffs in the NFL. I can handle tougher games later on because once a team realizes it has potential to be more than a .500 club, magical things somehow happen.

So when I began thinking about this post I had an original group of seven in my head when I began pondering this prediction. In the NFC, I had the Bears, Panthers, and Cardinals. In the AFC, I had the Jets, Dolphins, Texans, and Broncos. Now, obviously that is far too many teams to have as surprises considering there are only 12 playoff teams total.

So if we go with my first parameter for being a surprise team (easy division), you can right away wipe out three AFC teams. The Fins and Jets will most definitely be improved but with Favre in New York coupled with all their free agent acquisitions, I just can't consider their emergence as surprising anymore. I also think the Fins will be much improved with Pennington running the show, but now with the Pats and Jets poised to make runs, in addition to a Bills team that Graham thinks is being vastly underrated (even though their starting QB went 1-11 as a senior in college), that division is much too tough for Miami. And since I'm peniciling in four losses for the Texans since they have to play Jacksonville and Indy twice each, I'd have to say they're out of the question as well.



That leaves me with the Jay Cutler All Stars ... errr ... I mean the Broncos. According to my thought process, they fit the bill so to speak. The NFC West is hardly a juggernaut considering the Raiders and Chiefs are fetuses when compared with the manly NFL. And Denver's first four games are at Oakland, home games against the Chargers and Saints, followed by a road game against Kansas City. If they can win one of those tough home games, I don't think it's out of the question for them to start 3-1.

If you take a look at the rest of the Bronco schedule, I don't think 10 wins a wild card spot are out of the question. In addition to the three wins I've already mentioned, I'm confident in wins at home against the Bucs, Fins, and then beating the Chiefs and Raiders when they come to Invesco. Then all they need to do is win three out of this batch of games: at Atlanta, at Cleveland (who will collapse once it realizes just how mediocre derek Anderson was the second half of last season and reminds me so much of old school Dan Snyder in the way they've spent money, it's scary), at Jets, at Carolina. I'm penciling denver in for auto losses against New England, San Diego on the road, and Jacksonville at home.

Obviously, this brash prediction is contingent on the Jay Cutler-Brandon Marshall connection producing once Marshall serves a one-game suspension in week one, the Broncos' running game remaining solid with Selvin Young, and the addition of DeWayne Robertson on the defensive line providing Denver's D with enough of a pass rush for corners Champ Bailey and Dre Bly.

As for the NFC, I'm eliminating the Bears because they are the Bears (and they have a pretty stiff schedule to start the season with Indy, Carolina, and Philly in the first four weeks). Oh yeah Da Bears also have a guy named Kyle Orton, who couldn't beat out Rex Grossman a year ago, at quarterback. I just don't see a drastic turnaround, weak division or not. I wanted to say the Cardinals, but like the Bears, I'm fighting that urge because of the Cards history of failing to live up to any expectations ever given to them. I just can't see a Kurt Warner-led team making the playoffs, especially because they aren't going to win their division over the Seahawks.



That leaves us with Carolina, a team I was so impressed with when it demolished the Skins in the preseason. The Panthers have Jake Delhomme back and healthy with a new elbow. And let's not forget, this is a make or break year for Jon Fox. Chances are if he doesn't make the playoffs this season, his reign as Carolina coach is likely over. The NFC South may look strong on the surface with Tampa and New Orleans, but I think the Bucs will take a large step back this season with aging veterans Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. And the early schedule is more than manageable with games against the Bears, Falcons, and Chiefs in the first five weeks. They may lose their opener to San Diego, but the Panthers have a real opportunity to get on a roll, especially once Steve Smith comes back from his "knockout punch" suspension. Lest I forget, there's also this fellow by the name of Julius Peppers who I fully expect to bounce back from an injury-riddled season a year ago and post some monster numbers.

So there you have it, Carolina and Denver will make the playoffs this season. Remember where you heard it first.

The Skins in a nutshell

It really feels like yesterday that the Giants pulled off that stunning upset in the Super Bowl last February. I can't believe Thursday night the Skins return to the gridiron for some meaningful football. It's the most exciting time of the year, when every team in the NFL has a shot at doing something special.

Now, being a die hard Redskins fan, I think it's natural for me to think optimistically about the season. I want to believe they have what it takes to make another playoff run. But I'm no fool, I realize most others think differently.


Look at the trash 'stache on our star tight end.

Here's my logic: In one train of thought, the new Seattle Seahawks-inspired West Coast scheme that Jim Zorn brings over should rejuvenate an offense that still has some playmakers. When healthy, guys like Chris Cooley, Clinton Portis, and Santana Moss have all proven effective. Hell, Cooley is coming off a Pro Bowl season and Portis finished with the third-most yards from scrimmage in the NFL last year. And the defense returns pretty much everyone expect Sean Taylor, and has some continuity with Greg Blatche naturally transitioning into Gregg Williams' old role as de facto defensive coordinator.

But there's a lot of ifs all over the place. Like the Skins will be a playoff team if Jason Campbell learns how to finish off drives with touchdowns and take the next step in his development. Or the Skins will be a playoff team if Clinton Portis and Santana Moss stay healthy for an entire season (a big if). And don't forget the Redskins will be a playoff team if the offensive line remains mostly intact, something it hasn't done in over three years. All this assuming the defense remains a support for the team to lean on. Not exactly a guarantee with formally good veterans like London Fletcher, Shawn Springs, Jason Taylor, and Marcus Washington fast approaching or smack dab in front of the old man wall that kills careers in their tracks.



So yeah, I'd agree I've recently been having bad thoughts grudgingly creep into my mind about this year's Skins team. Anxious is probably the best way to describe my thoughts heading into a season in which I believe the Skins could finish as well as 11-5 (if everything goes perfect) or as poorly as 6-10. A betting man would probably presume an 8-8 season with those thoughts in mind. But I'm a blind, optimistic Skins fan so I'm going with 10-6, skating into that wild card position once again.

Some Other Thoughts For Faith If You're a Skins Fan

-I haven't seen anything suggesting Chris Cooley has plateaued. Zorn as said he will split him out wide this year, meaning even more opportunities for catches.

-The last two preseason games aside, I fully expect Jason Campbell to be a solid NFL quarterback this season. He's not going to single-handedly win games just yet, but I don't envision him being a crutch to this team's success.

-While I accept one player on the D will be exposed as over the hill this year (my best guess is Marcus Washington or London Fletcher), there's just too much talent returning for this unit to be anything worse than solid.

-I lambasted the Skins for keeping Ladell Betts instead of trading him for a good draft pick a couple off seasons ago. But in retrospect, he has proved huge in keeping Clinton Portis motivated. I have a feeling Betts strong finish to 2006 is always in the back of C Port's mind. I'm expecting another big year, especially without as many play calls that involve him ramming full speed into the offensive line.

-Jim Zorn can certainly talk the talk as head coach. The media around here loves the guy.

-Rock Cartwright and Mike Sellers are still on the squad. Gotta have those glue guys.


Mike Sellers in a nutshell: Made the Skins as a young pup out of Walla Walla JC, cashed in during free agency with the Browns, got arrested for felony coke and pot possession charges, then ressurrected his career with the Gibbs regime as a badass battering ram fullback.

Some More Thoughts of Doom

-Santana Moss hasn't had a fully healthy and productive season since 2005. With the rookie wideouts not close to playing in games, he's being counted on to be a primary playmaker. I'm not sold on him doing that. Oh yeah, James Thrash — yes that James Thrash — is currently listed as the No. 3 wide receiver. Is it just me or does it seem weird that a team that plans to switch gears and rely heavily on the passing game has James Thrash as their No. 3 wide receiver?

-Jon Jansen was so bad in pass protection, the Skins benched him in favor of Stephon Heyer, a second-year from Maryland. Randy Thomas is nicely being described as "still rounding into form from another knee surgery", which to me means hasn't shown he's back yet. So basically the right side of the line is in more flux than was expected.

-It seems awfully soon for Carlos Rogers to be 100% healthy from tearing his ACL and MCL last October. Coupled with LaRon Landry missing the entire preseason (although sometimes the rest pays dividends down the road), there are legitimate concerns with the secondary — an area that was supposed to be one of the team's strengths.

-And last but not least on the Richter scale of possibly signaling doom: the men who, despite a relatively decent off season, I would still never entrust my favorite fast food franchise to. Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato are still making the decisions for the Washington Redskins, and judging from recent history that is something to always worry about.

David Duchovny Dilemma Solved

I've got to admit, there has been a dilemma running through my mind ever since the show Californication started airing on Showtime last fall. See, I really dig the show, especially the scenes where star David Duchovny is a badass sexaholic. But every time I saw Duchovny hitting on women or a woman simply approach him with overt displays of sexual attraction, I couldn't help thinking about who the real Duchovny is?

He pulls off the womanizing sex fiend very well on Showtime, but I'm willing to guess most of America still sees him as Agent Mulder from X Files. And frankly, the X Files was a closet weirdo show that was watched by people who believe aliens killed JFK.

Well to my happiness, Mr. Duchovny might just be playing himself on Californication:

In an unfortunate case of life imitating art, Californication star David Duchovny has been admitted to a rehab clinic for sex addiction.

The married American actor, who plays a sex-obsessed womaniser on the racy Showtime series, today confirmed through his lawyer that he was receiving treatment.

Sounds to me Duchovny went to rehab for being awesome. I've never heard of too much sex. But as always, there's more background to this story:

Discussing his marriage in an earlier interview, he likened women to drugs. “It was a turning point in my life. A conjunction of timing, maturity, luck and attraction. All the pieces fell into place. When you’re married you have to deal with yourself. You can’t sublimate your pain with drugs and other women. Or should that be women and other drugs?”

Duchovny also said he did not enjoy filming the program’s many sex scenes.

“The sex scenes are especially unsexy. They’re just awkward, you know. Some people might be turned on by awkwardness. I’m not one of those guys. There are ten sweaty guys hanging lights over you while you…”

There is still a controversy here. Duchovny is married to Tea Leoni of Deep Impact and Spanglish fame. Here's a picture to confirm her relative hotness — at least from a 40-year-old MILF perspective.



I know David Duchovny is a stud because of his recent success due to Californication but he's still David Duchovny. How much tail could he really be pulling? Well, I've dug a little deeper and apparently all that tail is internet-based:

According to Fox News, Duchovny's dependency stemmed from an obsession with online porn - of which Leoni is allegedly aware of and has been supportive, says a source.

Final Thoughts: While this is probably a little embarrassing for Duchovny (and more so for his family), you've got to admit it's giving Duchovny's show some solid publicity for when it comes back with new episodes in a couple weeks. I'm just wondering what his friends send to him while he's in rehab. Is a get well soon card appropriate? Maybe something like "Get well soon" with a picture of Rosie O'Donnell accompanying it.

Back in the saddle

Alright things are sort of back to normal here in DC and I should be posting on a more regular basis from now on. However, as I'm posting now, the sky is bright blue on this beautiful day of labor and I don't really want to spend all that much time posting. But this was a big weekend for football, and I actually spent all of Saturday in front of a television watching football, so I'll give five quick thoughts on what went down:

1) Obviously, I'm a little bummed out about what went down at the Big House this past Saturday. Yes, the offense looked atrocious and Michigan had no business being in the game (thank you Utah penalties for making us look at least a bit respectable), but I think you would be wrong to draw too many conclusions after just one loss. As I watched Rich Rod play two different quarterbacks, give carries to four running backs, and play God knows how many wide receivers, I couldn't help but think back to the beginning days of the John Beilein era last season.

See, Beilein had no clue what some of the little-used players on last year's Michigan basketball team could do in game situations, and it was a season-long process to develop any sort of playing rotation. From watching this past weekend, I think it's pretty obvious Rich Rod isn't really sure what a lot of these players are capable of, so he's playing a whole bunch of them. It's going to take until midseason for this team to really hit any kind of stride. Expect some onerous growing pains in the coming weeks. I'm not calling for any doomsdays scenarios just yet since I'm looking forward to see the progress this team makes over the course of the season.

And frankly, I think Utah could go down as the second- or third- best team on Michigan's 2008 roster when everything is said and done.

2) The ACC blows and is top to bottom the worst BCS conference again this season. Va. Tech lost to ECU, Clemson blew chunks against Bama, Virginia got embarassed by USC, NC State made a mockery of the sport getting shut out by South Carolina, and Maryland barely squeeked by 1-AA Delaware. I think the conference should be particularly worried about Clemson, who was predicted to be a national power this season. Kirk Herbstreit spent much of the Saturday night broadcast praising Alabama, and they deserve some credit for demolishing the Tigers, but I was really shocked by how poor Clemson played. I've been reading about these playmakers C.J. Spiller and James Davis for three seasons now, and other than the occassional speed burst they haven't been able to produce on a consistent basis.

3) I think this weekend also proved just how much potential injuries could change the college football landscape. I'm sure most heard about Beanie Wells of Ohio State, Knowshon Moreno of Georgia, and jeremy Maclin of Missouri going down with what turned out to be relatively minor injuries. But it was a reminder to me how much things can change with one snap. I hate to say it, but I think we're going to see some injuries in the next week or two that completely alters the complexion of some teams.

4) I know it's only one game, but I think Penn State has a shot to be the second-best team in the Big Ten. They destroyed Coastal Carolina this weekend, 66-3. The Nittany Lions are back to the running quarterback thing aftet two years trying to fit the square Anthony Morelli into a round hole. If the defense holds, I'm expecting some big things (and that's not just because my brother began his freshman year there. Trust me, I normally hate this school).

5) having been a Duke basketball fan for so long, this just made me laugh:

Duke officials were a bit surprised when, at 6 p.m. Saturday, about an hour before the scheduled kickoff of their game against James Madison, two men parachuted into Wallace Wade Stadium and landed with a game ball. Problem was, the Blue Devils -- who were warming up on the field along with their guests from Virginia -- weren't expecting it. ...

North Carolina was scheduled to receive the game ball for its contest against McNeese State via an aerial team at about that time in Chapel Hill. According to UNC assistant athletic director for promotions Michael Beale, the plane was in the air but the jumpers from Virginia-based Aerial Adventures opted to cancel the leap into Kenan Stadium because of weather. Evidently, when the clouds eventually opened, the pilot thought they were over the correct stadium, and the skydivers jumped -- realizing only when they landed in Wallace Wade that they were in the wrong place.