Chipper Jones in the Hall of Fame?

So on MOnday night I got the privelege of sitting in the front row third base line for the Natties/Braves game. The Nats and their collection of AAA pitchers got shelled by the Braves. Most notably, Chipper Jones had three homers in the game which I thought was pretty God damn impressive. And after he hit the third bomb, my Dad, who was sitting next to me, asked if I thought Chipper was a Hall of Famer or not. And it got me thinking. I wasn't sure. So I looked up Chipper's career stats and it kind of surprised me. He's got a .305 lifetime average, 350 homers, almost 1200 RBIs, 1900 hits and has one World Series ring from the 1995 Braves. That isn't a bad little stat line right there, but is it Hall of Fame worthy?

I looked up the three of the most recent Hall of Fame third basemen to see if Chipper has got a shot at going to Cooperstown. The three being Wade Boggs, Mike Schmidt, and George Brett. In the batting average department, Chipper compares rather well with the three. Boggs was notorious for being a great hitter for average, so its understandable that Chipper falls a bit short to ol' Wade. Boggs was a lifetime .328 hitter. Brett had the same lifetime average as Chipper and Scmidty was just a .267 hitter over his career. So far, so good for Chipper. But, we must not forget an imporatant point here. Chipper is now entering the twilight of his career at age 34 and that .305 average will almost certainly go down a bit in the next few years.

Chipper's power numbers also seem to boost his Hall worthiness. 350 homers is clearly not even comparable to the nearly 550 that Schmidt hit, but it is way more than Boggs and Brett could muster over their careers. Not to mention that at 34 Chipper definitely has enough time to get over the 400 homer plateau atleast. His RBI total of nearly 1200 is lower than both Brett and Schmidt who each had 1,595 RBIs during their careers. But let's assume Chipper has atleast another three seasons left in his career. He may not equal those RBI numbers, but he will not be far off. So, again, Chipper comes through.

Hit totals is where it gets tricky. Both Boggs and Brett each had over 3,000 of them. With just 1900 hits so far in his career, 3000 is probably an unattainable number for Chipper. But, he has far better power numbers than Boggs or Brett. Schmidt, who was a power hitter, had just over 2200 hits in his career. With a few more seasons, Chipper can, and I think probably will pass Schmidt's hit total. So where does that leave us in this Hall of Fame discussion?

Well, obviously, if he were to retire after this season Chipper would not be in the Hall of Fame. Currently he does not have any particular statistic that sticks out as fantastic. Brett and Boggs had 3,000 hits, while Schmidt had 500 homers. If you look at Chipper's stats over the past three seasons, 2003-2005, he averaged 130 hits, 26 homers, and 91 RBIs. And this came during a period of time where he had some trouble staying healthy, as in '04 and '05 he played in just 137 and 109 games respectively. This season, he has also had some injury troubles, playing in just 83 games so far. But his batting average is way up at .339, and therefore his hits are a little above average. Meanwhile, his power numbers are right on pace with 18 bombs and 65 RBIs so far.

To decide this debate we have to do a projection. Let's say Chipper plays four more seasons in the Big Leagues. That would make him 38 years old. And let's say he averages 130 hits, 25 homers, and 90 RBIs a year. That would put him at 450 homers, 2420 hits, and 1560 RBIs. That would mean Chipper wouldn't be putting up huge numbers the rest of the way, but by no means can he be offset by injury or have a terrible year. It will be tough, considering he is on the downside of his career, but I don't think it is impossible to conceive. But would those numbers be enough to get to Cooperstown? His power numbers would be a little lower than Schmidt's, but his average will almost certainly be higher. And his hits are only slightly better than Schmidt and way down compared with Boggs and Brett.

And after typing all of this, I don't think he should make it. Unlike the three Hall of Famers I mentioned, Chipper is just not going to have one of those "numbers". He won't have 3,000 hits. He won't have a inordinate amount of RBIs, and he won't have 500 homers. The 500 home run plateau seems to be the only reachable number for Chipper, but that would mean increasing his home run output dramatically during the twilight of his career. I just don't see it happening (without artificial enhancement). Sorry Chip. Good player, but the greats are the ones in Cooperstown.

God, I hope Portis is alright

I got back from a vacation in fantasy world (i.e Sherman, Conn) just in time to catch the beginning of the Redskins first preseason game this year against Cincy. And it wasn't the carefree start of the season the Skins wanted. Technically the Skins can't aid themselves in a run to the playoffs until the first game in 29 days against MInnesota. But, in this game their playoff hopes dimmed just a little. Clinton Portis is a huge focal point of the Skins and if his shoulder injury forces him to miss any significant time, the SKins should be very worried. And although the scoreboard at the end of the game as well as Joe Gibbs thoughts afterwards were very negative, I did take some positives out. But, to be honest, none of these positives mean much if one CPort has anything seriously wrong with his shoulder.

Picking up where they left off last year, the first team defense looked awesome. And even though they weren't matched up against the Bengals starter, Carson Palmer, they did exactly what you are supposed to do against a bad quarterback. They buried him. On offense the team moved the ball pretty well for a first preseason game despite Brunell's early pick. Brandon Lloyd particularly impressed me. And in the second half Jason Campbell looked damn good against the Bengals back-ups.

NL Wild Card Race

Sitting at the pool today, mildly bored, I began to look a little more closely than I normally do at the MLB standings in the sports section of the paper. And what stood out to me was how wide open the NL Wild Card race is. While in the AL the wild card will seemingly be a four team race with the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins and White Sox duking it out, the NL has atleast eight teams that can legitimately say they have a shot at this thing. The Reds lead the Dodgers and DBacks by only one game, and I hope we all realize how shaky the Reds are at this point. They are lacking big time in the pitching department, especially the starting rotation. The up-and-coming Rockies trail the Reds by just 2.5 games. And the most intriguing team in this race are the Philadelphia Phillies. In the midst of all the talk about them trading Cory Lidle and Bobby Abreu while getting nothing of value in return, the Phillies have re-entered themselves into the wild card picture, trailing Cincy by 3.5 games. IMagine if they had kept their front end of the rotation starter and the OPS. monster Abreu. And everyone is writing off the Astros right now and with a little under two months to go in the season, they trail by only 4 games. Same with the Giants...just 4 games. If the Braves get real hot they are only 5.5 games back after Sunday. Hell, the Nats are only 8 games out. A good three weeks could cut that down to 3 or 4 games if the cards played out right. But, in the end, my pick in this crowded race would be the Dodgers. They just won their ninth straight game on Sunday, and the improvements they made through the trading deadline are really going to pay dividends this season. Wilson Betemit and Julio Lugo are good, solid players, and Maddux adds another solid arm to that staff. And now Nomar is back healthy, along with Jeff Kent to solidify the lineup. This race is going to be about the team that plays spectacular the rest of the season, because none of these teams are that good in the watered-down

Bowden is a BUM

The MLB trade deadline has come and gone and Alfonso Soriano is still a National. I said it a few posts ago that if Nationals GM Jim Bowden didn't get rid of Soriano for some good prospects he should be fired. Well...I'm calling for his head. Reports indicate that his asking price with Soriano was way too high. Two prospects and a major league ready player is just way too much to ask a team to give up for a guy who isn't a superstar. That's right. NOT a superstar. He's a damn good baseball player, but you can't put him up there with the likes of Papi, Pujols, Vlad, and Bonds (a couple years ago) because as witnessed by the Nats' horrible record, he can't elevate his own team to playoff status. Now, all the Nationals will get is two draft picks in a lousy draft year if Soriano signs with another team this offseason. And let's just hope the Nats don't cave in and sign him themselves. 12-15 million dollars a year for a player who can't even propel his own team to play .500 ball is ludicrous. This is the last straw for me with Bowden. The guy has made some controversial moves and none of them have worked out. It's one thing to take a calculated risk, and it's another think to just be dumb. Just during this trading deadline, he didn't trade Soriano when his value was peaking and he traded away our best young reliever (Bill Bray), while receiving a terrible fielding shortstop (Felipe Lopez) and a "power" hitter whose numbers were inflated from playing in Cincinnati's hitters park (Austin Kearns). The bottom line is that there is no way SOriano is going to replicate this season ever again during his career. This was the time to trade him seeing as no less than eight teams were pursuing him. But, Bowden overthought the situation, and thought he was in the driver's seat. And it came back to bite him in the ass.

Michigan Football

So yesterday I got my 2006 football tickets in the mail, and I was unfortunately disappointed in my seating for the second year in a row. For some reason, as a junior, my seating group was put in row 60. This comes after last year having to sit with all freshman in row 79. I wonder who in our group has such terrible credit hours that we get put in such bad seats. But atleast I will be a little farther away from the terrible stench that is Lloyd Carr and his football team. It's really a shame that going into this season I have no reason to believe it will amount to anything resembling a national championship contender. Yeah, the team returns many of its key starters on offense, and they finally got rid of defensive coordinator Jim Hermann, but they still have to deal with a schedule that is in no ways easy. We can pretty much chalk up two losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State because they are both away games against top-5 teams. Luckily, we've got Iowa and Wisconisin at home this year, but those are no gimmes considering how awful Michigan was in the Big House last year.. Penn State on the road could go either way. And if Michigan loses either of its rivalry games against Minnesota or Michigan State, then the whole team deserves to be disassembled. I could easily see a 10-2 season heading into the bowl season. Heck, they could even go 11-1. But there's no way they can beat both Ohio State and Notre Dame away from the Big House in one season. But, knowing Lloyd Carr and his penchant for sucking ass, I'm thinking a 9-3 season with a visit to a New Years Day bowl (like the Capital One Bowl) is a more appropriate prediction.

Football is Back

We're reaching the dog days of summer now, but not everything is that bad. Football is starting to get back into swing with training camps starting to open, and ESPN squeezing in a bunch of football related features to keep us watching. I figured I would leave you with some of my early thoughts on the upcoming NFL season.

1. The Redskins could very easily be as good as 12-4 or 13-3. BUT I could also very easily see them going 7-9, 8-8. The potential is there, it's just a matter of putting it together.

2. The Dolphins are overrated. They will be a wild card team at best.

3. The Steelers will come back down to Earth.

4. Colts should have won it last year and now I think their time as an elite team will slowly wind down.

5. I was not too pleased to see those Donovan McNabb interviews where his face looked real slim. It looks like this whole T.O debacle has motivated him into getting into better shape. IN the past couple years his mobility just wasn't the same as compared to his younger years.

6. NFC PLayoff teams- NFC East winner: Redskins, NFC North winner: Bears NFC South: Falcons NFC West: Seahawks, Wild Cards: Giants, Panthers

7. AFC Playoff Teams- AFC East winner: Patriots, AFC North: Bengals, AFC South winner: Colts, AFC West winner: Chiefs, Wild Cards: Chargers, Jaguars

Trade Deadline

It's getting towards the end of July, and the Nationals are clearly out of the playoff picture. Their team is up there age wise and the bottom line is that they aren't very good. Pretty much every player on the major league roster is expendable except for third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. They have a great player in Alfonso Soriano, but he's the only guy on the team worth more than a throw in prospect. This means that he's gotta be traded. Soriano is having maybe the best statistical season of his playing career, and the Nationals still stink. Some people think that signing Soriano to a long term deal is wiser than simply getting rid of one of the more dynaic players in the game. But if he's having a great year and the team is still losing...he ain't worth the money. But, the pressure isn't on Soriano. This situation is a win-win for him. If he gets traded, it's going to be to a team in the playoff race. And if he doesn't he's still going to get a pretty good deal come winter time. The pressure is on Nationals GM Jim (Brett Myers may throw a harder fastball, but I throw a harder bitch slap) Bowden. If he doesn't trade Soriano for some meaningful prospects he deserves to be fired. There has been all this talk of the Nats stockpiling prospects, but I haven't seen any of it yet. And if the new ownership is really sincere about its desire to build through the minors, then signing Soriano is simply hypocritical. Basically, if Soriano is still in a Nationals jersey come August 1, Bowden needs to find his way out of town. It's time to end the misery that is the Nationals 2006 season, and completely rebuild this thing. I'd rather have a team of young up and comers, than clubhouse headaches like Jose Guillen, or over the hill bums like Jose Vidro and Livan Hernandez.

I haven't blogged in too long

Once again, working at Carderock has totally screwed up this blog. I've been real inconsistent as of late but hopefully things will go back to normal once I get back to Michigan. But since I haven't blogged in what seems like forever (and my last post was total crap anyways), I figured I would just go through the things that have been running around my head recently.

I didn't really understand the Nationals-Reds trade where the Nats gave up Gary Majewski, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, BIll Bray, and a minor leaguer for Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and a decent minor leaguer. All of the national prognosticators deemed the trade as a huge success for the Nats, but I just don't see it. I feel like the Nats completely went against what they have been trying to do since they came to DC. The pitching staff was already weak and it got a lot weaker with the losses of a solid Majewski and a good young lefty in Bray. I felt like they were keepers. It's not like the Nats got all that younger with the deal. Majewski and Bray are essentially the same ages as Kearns and Lopez. And if you look at their statistics, Clayton and Lopez are similar except for Lopez's power numbers. BUt Clayton is far better defensively. And yeah, Kearns is good...but the Nats didn't need another corner outfielder. They are currently trying to trade two away in Soriano and Guillen. Instead of giving up good young pitching for Kearns, why don't they just resign Soriano? I guess Jim Bowden knows something I don't.

Just watched the highlights of the White Sox kicking some Tiger ass tonight. Part of me wants to see the Tigers just die miserably down the stretch. But another part of me wants to be in the Detroit area during the pennant race. And then there is that part of me that knows that everyone and their mother is going to be rooting for the Tigers went I return to Michigan. It will be all these people who claim to have been Tigers fans for eternity, when really they couldn't name a player besides Pudge from last season's team. It will be just like the fake ass Pistons fans of the past few years. Remember just 7 or 8 years ago when the Palace was empty?

It's great that Detroit Free Press writer John Lowe is actually getting to cover a winning Tigers team for a change. The man has not had a winning season in like 20 years writing about baseball.

This whole Israel-Lebanon bombing business needs to stop. The fucking MIddle East is ridiculous.

I can't believe Brandon Fahey is still playing for the Orioles. For anyone who doesn't know him, he's currently a "valuable" utility man for the O's in his first full season in the Big Leagues. But last year he was the starting shortstop for the Bowie Baysox, the AA team I worked for. And from day one, I thought the guy was the one person in that Baysox starting line-up who had no shot at making the majors. He was a decent fielder, but he literally could not hit the ball on a line drive. All of his hits were bloops or grounders. And he only batted like .265 in AA. Maybe that's just how terrible the O's are.

Entourage is finally heating up. The writers finally seem to have settled back into the groove they developed during season two. I think we all agree the Dom situation was a debacle. I know Pete is a happy man now that Sloane is back in the mix.

What to Follow?

This has been quite an eventful day. Currently, I am sitting at a computer in Jess' house writing this blog. IT is 3:52 am. I can't fall asleep. But I'm leaving in about an hour to drive home so maybe that is a good thing. And I am seriously questioning the path I chose to follow on this day. INstead of going with my head and staying home tonight, I went with my gut and came all the way to Philly in order to see a few friends from school. I had a great time, but this drive coming up in an hour could be torturous. The mind or the gut feeling...the ultimate decision.

Jose Canseco and steroids

Haven't posted in a while because I've been so busy working at the pool. I just made it through seven straight 11 hour days. But it doesn't mean I haven't been paying attention to what's going on. I noticed Jose Canseco got a deal with some independant baseball team (I wonder if they signed him because of his impressive performance in the Surreal Life softball game) and promptly had a press conference accusing the MLB of not being tough enough on steroids. And the funny part is...I'm listening to him. For all the crap he got when his book Juiced came out, many of the things written in it have come true. He's been the most honest in this whole steroids ordeal even if he's been doing it all for the money and publicity. And the more and more I listen to Canseco the more and more I think the guy is a very sharp guy. He makes vague statements about steroids that can't be proven right or wrong (so he keeps himself out of legal trouble), but the comments are pointed enough so that they draw attention to what's going on.

But with how competitive pro sports are, I don't think this steroid thing will ever be solved. Someone will always be coming up with some new drug that will get you stronger and faster, whether it's human growth hormone or something even more advanced. Athletes are always going to be trying to get that extra edge, because we as fans expect them to have that extra edge. I remember back before Sammy Sosa hit those 66 home runs in 1998 that he was a huge target of the Chicago media. IN 1996, Sammy hit around 40 homers in a contract year, and the Cubs rewarded him with a big time deal, thinking he was coming into his own. But then in 1997, Sammy flopped, hitting something like 20 homers. And the media and fans were all over Sammy and all over the Cubs about the huge contract. The rest is history, as 1998 was the historic year in which Sosa and McGwire went on their epic chase together. And even though it has not been proven, we all know Sammy did something illegal along the way. BUt you can't blame him completely. He had all this pressure due to the demands of his huge contract. He had to find a way to appease the fans and the media.